Entertaining Without Endorsing: The Case for the Scientific Investigation of Anomalous Cognition
📄 Original study ↗📌 Appears in:
Plain English Summary
How should science handle phenomena that sound impossible but keep showing up in the data? This paper tackles that question head-on. The authors point out that respected scientists hold wildly different gut feelings about anomalous cognition (things like precognition or telepathy) -- from 'billion-to-one against' to outright support from a Nobel laureate. Using Bayes' theorem (a mathematical way of updating beliefs with new evidence), they show these opposing priors lead to genuinely different -- and both reasonable -- readings of the same results. And those results are nothing to sneeze at: multiple meta-analyses across precognition, telepathy, psychokinesis (mind influencing matter), and clairvoyance all show small but statistically significant effects. The clever solution? 'Entertain without endorse' -- take the findings seriously enough to investigate rigorously, but hold off on believing until nine strict benchmarks are met, including pre-registration, adversarial collaboration, and independent replication across multiple labs.
Actual Paper Abstract
Empirical reports in mainstream journals that human cognition extends in ways that challenge the current boundaries of science (anomalous cognition) has been viewed with dismay by many who see it as evidence that science is broken. Here the authors make the case for the value of conducting and publishing well-designed studies investigating anomalous cognition. They distinguish between the criteria that justify entertaining the possibility of anomalous cognition from those required to endorse it as a bona fide phenomenon. In evaluating these 2 distinct thresholds, the authors draw on Bayes's theorem to argue that scientists may reasonably differ in their appraisals of the likelihood that anomalous cognition is possible. Although individual scientists may usefully vary in the criteria that they hold both for entertaining and endorsing anomalous cognition, we provide arguments for why researchers should consider adopting a liberal criterion for entertaining anomalous cognition while maintaining a very strict criterion for the outright endorsement of its existence. Grounded in an understanding of the justifiability of disparate views on the topic, the authors encourage humility on both the part of those who present evidence in support of anomalous cognition and those who dispute the merit of its investigation.
Research Notes
Published in a special issue of Psychology of Consciousness alongside Mossbridge & Radin (2018). The 'entertain without endorse' framework provides the most developed mainstream epistemological case for investigating psi, serving as a key reference point in the ongoing debate. The nine endorsement criteria offer a concrete benchmark for evaluating experimental programs in this library.
Drawing on Bayes's theorem, argues that scientists' vastly different prior probabilities regarding anomalous cognition — from physicist Sean Carroll's 'less than a billion to one against' to Nobel laureate Brian Josephson's endorsement — produce legitimately polarized evidence appraisals. Reviews meta-analyses across precognition (z=6.02; z=6.4 across 90 Bem-paradigm studies), ganzfeld telepathy (z=5.48), psychokinesis (z=15.76), and clairvoyance (z=3.07), noting small but statistically significant effects in most cases. Proposes the 'entertain without endorse' framework with nine strict criteria for endorsing anomalous cognition, including pre-registration, adversarial collaboration, locked protocols, off-site data logging, and independent multi-lab replication.
Links
Related Papers
Cites
- Feeling the Future: Experimental Evidence for Anomalous Retroactive Influences on Cognition and Affect — Bem, Daryl J (2011)
- Correcting the Past: Failures to Replicate Psi — Galak, Jeff (2012)
- Predictive Physiological Anticipation Preceding Seemingly Unpredictable Stimuli: A Meta-Analysis — Mossbridge, Julia (2012)
- Meta-Analysis of Free-Response Studies, 1992–2008: Assessing the Noise Reduction Model in Parapsychology — Storm, Lance (2010)
- Examining Psychokinesis: The Interaction of Human Intention With Random Number Generators—A Meta-Analysis — Bösch, Holger (2006)
- Evidence for Consciousness-Related Anomalies in Random Physical Systems — Radin, Dean I (1989)
- Experimenter Effects and the Remote Detection of Staring — Wiseman, Richard (1997)
- Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science — Open Science Collaboration (2015)
- A Call for an Open, Informed Study of All Aspects of Consciousness — Cardeña, Etzel (2014)
Cited By
Companion
- Decline Effects: Types, Mechanisms, and Personal Reflections — Protzko, John (2017)
- Future Directions in Meditation Research: Recommendations for Expanding the Field of Contemplative Science — Vieten, C (2018)
- Precognition as a Form of Prospection: A Review of the Evidence — Mossbridge, Julia A (2018)
- Perspectives on Precognition — Woody, Erik (2018)
- Future directions in precognition research: more research can bridge the gap between skeptics and proponents — Franklin, Michael S (2014)
More in Overview
Editorial: Emerging Research: Self-Ascribed Parapsychological Abilities
When the Truth Is Out There: Counseling People Who Report Anomalous Experiences
What if consciousness is not an emergent property of the brain? Observational and empirical challenges to materialistic models
Is the Sun Conscious?
Inner Experience – Direct Access to Reality: A Complementarist Ontology and Dual Aspect Monism Support a Broader Epistemology
📋 Cite this paper
Schooler, Jonathan W, Baumgart, Stephen, Franklin, Michael (2018). Entertaining Without Endorsing: The Case for the Scientific Investigation of Anomalous Cognition. Psychology of Consciousness: Theory, Research, and Practice. https://doi.org/10.1037/cns0000151
@article{schooler_2018_entertaining,
title = {Entertaining Without Endorsing: The Case for the Scientific Investigation of Anomalous Cognition},
author = {Schooler, Jonathan W and Baumgart, Stephen and Franklin, Michael},
year = {2018},
journal = {Psychology of Consciousness: Theory, Research, and Practice},
doi = {10.1037/cns0000151},
}